ANTICIPATORY MANAGEMENT:
10 POWER TOOLS FOR ACHIEVING EXCELLENCE
INTO THE 21ST CENTURY

William C. Ashley and James L. Morrison (0-913869-05-8)
Paperback, 290 pages, November 1995
US $29.95, plus shipping and handling

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This essential guide puts at your fingertips a set of powerful tools to enable you to anticipate and influence external activities that affect your organization's strategies. Authors William C. Ashley and James L. Morrison lead you in applying methodologies such as the Strategic Trend Intelligence System, the Issue Vulnerability Audit, The Delphi Rating Method to place issue priorities, the Issue Accountability Model, the Issue Analysis Worksheet, and more. These tools are synthesized into the Anticipatory Management Process, your roadmap for seizing competitive advantage.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Chapter One: The Need for Anticipatory Management
  Yesterday's Solutions Cause Today's Problems
  Expensive Wake-Up Calls
  Dysfunctional Responses
  Outlook for the '90s
  Examples of Effective Anticipatory Management
  Summary
• Chapter Two: Components of Strategic Thinking
  Models for Managing Organizations
  Traditional, Linear Thinking
  Nine-Dots Problem
  The Many Worlds of Today's Managers
  Strategic Thinking: Nontraditional, Holistic
  Strategically Placed Holes
  Summary
• Chapter Three: Surfacing and Challenging Assumptions
  The Paradigmatic Effect
  Surfacing Implicit Assumptions
  Examples of Surfaced but Unchallenged Assumptions
  Summary
• Chapter Four: Strategic Trend Intelligence System
  Establishing a Strategic Trend Intelligence System
  Defining Terms
  Setting up an Environmental Scanning Workshop
  Other Components of a Strategic Trend Intelligence System
  Case in Point: Repetitive Stress Injuries
  Sources for Scanning
  Pitfalls to Avoid in Establishing and Using a Strategic Trend Intelligence System
  Summary
• Chapter Five: The Issue Life Cycle
  The Tyranny of the Small Majority
  Case in Point: The Alar Incident
  The Issue Life Cycle
  A Difficult Lesson to Learn
  Issues of the '70s
  Using the Life Cycle of Issues in Anticipatory Management
  "Infoductiveness"
  Summary
• Chapter Six: Issues Vulnerability Audit
  Conducting an Audit
  Discovering Strategic Organizational Supports
  Summary
• Chapter Seven: Issue Briefs
  Anatomy of an Issue Brief
  Summary
• Chapter Eight: Delphi Rating Method
  Which Category?
  Applying a Tool of the Futurist-The Delphi
  The Delphi Rating Sheet
  Choosing an Owner
  Summary
• Chapter Nine: The 10-Step Issue Management Process
  Summary
• Chapter Ten: The Issue Accountability Model
  Summary
• Chapter Eleven: Issue Analysis Work Sheet
• Chapter Twelve: The Scenario Technique Applied to Anticipatory Management
  The Scenario Technique
  The Role of Scenarios
  The "Inner World" of ManAgers
  Spyglass on the Future
  Creating Multiple Scenarios: One Approach
  A Second Example: Telecommunications
  The Product: Multiple Scenario Analysis
  Summary
• Chapter Thirteen: The Anticipatory Mangement Process: Putting It All Together
  The Anticipatory Management Process
  Summary
• Chapter Fourteen: Introducing Anticipatory Management into the Organization
  Links to Standing Functions
  Industry Institutes and Associations
  The Natural Partnership of Anticipatory Management and TQM
  Anticipatory Management as Part of Something Bigger
  Summary
• Chapter Fifteen: Solutions to Anticipatory Management Challenges
  The Field Theory
  The Lofty Sails Theory
  The Boiled Frog Phenomenon
  The Monk From the Farthest Temple
  The Organization as a Collection of Boutiques
  The Functional Foxhole Theory of Management
  Management by Problem Solving
  Summary
• Bibliography
• Appendix A: Global Petroleum Trends
• Appendix B: Sample Issue Abstract
• Appendix C: Sears Taxonomy
• Appendix D: Vulnerability Audit Results
• Appendix E: Sample Issue Brief
• Appendix F: Sample Delphi Rating Sheet and Consensus Reports
• Appendix G: Case Studies: Issue Management in Action L.A. Department of Water and Power: Air Quality
  Sears, Roebuck and Co.: Regulation of Interstate Commerce
  Boeing Corporation
  Georgia Power Company
  Weyerhaeuser Company
  Index